By Mike Bleech

The official outlook for spring gobbler hunting in Pennsylvania might not be quite as good as it has been in recent years; however, this season would probably be most accurately characterized as "slightly less spectacular." To describe it as anything less would be misleading, and it is equally unfair to expect things to improve every year.

"Our (2003) turkey production was low because of the cold, wet spring, so there aren't many young birds coming into the population, and the mast crop was spotty," said Mary Jo Casalena, the Pennsylvania Game Commission's top turkey biologist.

Casalena said that turkey hunters found the birds in concentrated flocks last fall due to the spotty mast crop, and those flocks were generally small. The poor mast crop could also have caused problems with winter survival.

Compounding the problem of winter survival was the fact that poor spring nesting conditions led to many late broods. Many of the turkeys hatched last year were much younger than usual coming into winter. Severe winter weather did not arrive until relatively late, which might have helped the situation, but poor poult recruitment last spring, and whether or not winter mortality was severe, will have an effect on gobbler hunting this spring. The spring 2002 hatch will be the primary determining factor of hunting success in 2004.

"Most of the spring gobbler harvest consists of 2-year-old birds, which are vocal and somewhat easier to call than older birds," Casalena explained.

Most serious turkey hunters, which include the majority of Pennsylvania's spring gobbler hunters, pass on jakes and wait to fill their tags on longbeards, predominately 2-year-old gobblers. The few gobblers that survive their second year will be difficult to kill. Turkey hunters often assume that these birds somehow learn how to avoid hunters, but it's more likely that these are birds that were rarely vocal and always did wait for the hens to approach them.

Pennsylvania turkey hunters who spend time scouting well away from the crowds should do well on public lands this spring. Photo by Mike Bleech

The long-term trends in Pennsylvania's turkey population will be the major influence on hunting quality this spring.

"Prior to last spring, our population had been increasing quite well," Casalena said. "For example, our predicted population estimate from 1998 was 272,000 birds. Our spring population estimate for 2003 was almost 364,000 birds. In 2001, we had the highest spring population estimate that we've ever had. It was about 410,000 birds. We've come down slightly from that figure."

But, she noted, the turkey population trend has generally been increasing. It is much better than it was during the 1980s and 1990s. Although recruitment was down in 2003, it was very good in 2001 and 2002.

While the turkey population has been increasing, interest in turkey hunting has also been evolving in Pennsylvania.

"In 2000, 2001 and 2002, we actually had more hunters in the woods in the spring season," Casalena said. "We've traditionally been a fall hunting state."

As recently as 1990, Pennsylvania had 234,911 fall turkey hunters, but only 191,442 spring turkey hunters. By 2000, the number of spring turkey hunters nudged past the number of fall turkey hunters, with 231,860 in the spring season compared to 230,448 in the fall season.

"We're also now seeing a larger spring harvest than fall harvest," Casalena noted.

The first time the spring harvest exceeded the fall harvest was in 2001, when 49,186 spring gobblers were taken compared to 48,008 birds in the fall season. The 2003 spring gobbler harvest was about 43,600 birds.

"The 2003 harvest was lower than the previous three years, but 2001 was a record harvest, so you expect your harvests in subsequent years to be a little bit lower," Casalena said. "Our previous 10-year average was about 39,000 birds, so it was still better than the 10-year average, which is great."

Here is a look at what's in store for Keystone State turkey hunters in 2004:

But that is not necessarily good news. Turkeys are being studied here because this is the only significant portion of the state where the turkey population has not shown signs of filling its niche. The fall 2003 turkey hunting season was closed here with the intention of saving more birds for the spring nesting season.

"One of the things we found from our radio telemetry study was that fall turkey hunting mortality was higher than it should be," Casalena said.

The radio telemetry study indicated that 15 percent of the unit's turkeys were being harvested by hunters during the fall season, which is too high. Any more than a 10 percent loss will lead to a declining turkey population.

Another telling figure revealed in the study was poult survival. The desired figure is for 25 percent poult survival, but in this wildlife management unit, poult survival is just 12 to 23 percent.

These figures probably provide the explanation for why the region's turkey population has not improved. Adjusting the hunting season might remedy adult survival during fall, but the answer to the poult survival problem will be more difficult.

"In the rest of the Southcentral Region, the ridge and valley area in WMUs 4A, 4B and 4C, the population has been slowly increasing," Casalena said. "But now that we have three-week (fall) seasons, I want to wait three to five years to see what kind of population trend we have."

You can expect to find some of the better spring gobbler hunting in the Southcentral Region in the state game lands along the border between Huntingdon County and Blair County, SGLs 73 and 118.

The terrain in this area is mostly ridges and valleys. Farmlands cover much of the valleys, while the ridges are largely forested. Public lands are found mostly along the ridges, where plenty of gobblers can be lured away from the lowland farms. This is typically the case throughout the Southcentral Region.