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Pennsylvania Game & Fish
Pennsylvania’s 2008 Turkey Forecast

Records for Pennsylvania wild turkeys, and those from other states, are listed on the Web site.

WINTER SURVIVAL
“In terms of the number of birds coming into this winter, we had an average to above-average fall population. Some areas, such as in the northeastern part of the state, had record reproduction. There were turkeys everywhere. There was also good reproduction in the south-central part of the state where we have now a two-week fall season.”

In the South Central Region, the wild turkey population responded well when the fall season was cut back to two weeks.


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In addition, good nesting conditions produced high recruitment, but that was just good luck.

Manipulating the fall season is one of the major tools the PGC uses to manage the wild turkey population. The fall season has the greatest effect on hens, which in turn determine spring reproduction. In wildlife management units where biologists have determined that the turkey population should be increased to keep more hens in the population, fall seasons are shortened or eliminated.

“In most of the state, we had an average to slightly above-average mast crop,” Casalena said. “That means the birds had a good food supply. Nuts, of course, are important to them for overwintering because of their high protein and fat content.”

From that point of view, the harshness of winter weather determines how the fall’s wild turkey population will fare. Healthy hens coming out of a mild winter are more likely to produce good recruitment.

“I’m always looking at the health of the hen population for spring nesting success,” Casalena said.

“Coming into the breeding season in good condition, hens will breed early, and the majority of the hens will breed the first year.

“In terms of gobblers, we have a lot of jakes out there. We have an average to above-average number of 2-year-olds, so it looks pretty good.”

TROUBLE SPOTS
In a way, biologists must be fortunetellers. To keep hunters happy, which is no easy task, the Game Commission does its best to manage future populations.

Of course, this is done scientifically, not with a crystal ball. Research remains the key in making Pennsylvania one of the top states in the U.S. for hunting wild turkeys.

For several years, the Game Commission has experienced problems in one particular area of Pennsylvania -- WMU 1A near Micheaux State Forest. This wildlife management unit in the South Central Region extends northward from the Maryland border through Adams, Franklin and Cumberland counties.

It contains only three state game lands. Micheaux State Forest is the major public land holding.

“Our population and harvest information has been telling us that the population is on an increasing trend,” Casalena said, “for a couple of reasons. First of all, we closed the fall hunting season there, so you have more hens surviving into the next spring. We also lucked out with very successful breeding two years in a row. High reproduction with no fall harvest -- put those two together and then boom, you’ll have an increase in population, especially because we also had easy winters.”

Fall hunting seasons in WMU 5A will probably remain closed for at least another year. If things go well, hunters in that area may be able to hunt wild turkeys during the autumn for the first time in several years.

That initial fall season will almost certainly be abbreviated, but it is encouraging nonetheless. Even then, if it shows a negative effect on the population, it will be stopped again. This should give hunters more confidence that the state’s wild turkey management system is proving to be responsive and effective.


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