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Pennsylvania’s 2007 Turkey Forecast
Keystone State biologists are predicting another banner year for early-season turkey hunters. Here’s the lowdown on what to expect as the 2007 spring season unfolds. (May 2007)
According to Pennsylvania Game Commission calculations, Keystone State hunters took 32,593 gobblers during the 2005 spring season. Preliminary data indicates a harvest of about 44,100 gobblers last spring, a 35-percent increase. But fall turkey harvests fell -- from 31,100 in 2003 to 25,171 in 2005. The PGC did not conduct a 2004 game-take survey. But those 2005 harvest figures represented a 24-percent decline from the 2003 spring season, while the fall harvest represents a 19-percent decline. If those harvest declines appear startling, remember that the drop followed a period of record wild turkey harvests in Pennsylvania -- the result of good management and a few years of good spring nesting conditions, followed by productive fall mast crops. In other words, what appears to be a low 2005 spring gobbler harvest still exceeds pre-1995 totals. Ups and downs in wild turkey harvests over the past several years do not indicate a drop from good to bad -- they indicate great to merely good hunting! Of more immediate concern, what can hunters look forward to this spring? The answer is that it should be a basically good season. But harvests will vary between wildlife management units (WMUs). We’ll get more specific later. But for now, let’s understand what goes into the fortunes of spring gobbler hunting. A CLOSER LOOK In any given spring gobbler season, the harvest should be made up mostly of 2-year-old gobblers. The improved 2006 spring gobbler harvest was a result of good 2004 recruitment. Since then, there has not been particularly good recruitment in general. Across the commonwealth, last year’s recruitment was generally less than that of the best years, though later anecdotal observations indicated that estimates could have been low. Does this mean that hunters should be discouraged, coming into this spring gobbler season? Not at all! Just because we should not anticipate a record harvest doesn’t mean we can expect poor hunting. It does mean, however, that for the best chances of success, you should spend more time seeking out the better areas. And that means starting with an understanding of Pennsylvania’s wild turkey management, which is currently undergoing a transformation. For the past several years, the 1999 Wild Turkey Management Plan has guided management decisions. This plan has annually assessed population trends, using harvest and summer sightings. A 30-month radio telemetry study in Wildlife Management Unit 5A was used to assess the reasons for low population levels and to develop management strategies to restore the turkey population. Also, several habitat management demonstration areas were established on state game lands. How successful was the plan? “Since the 1999 plan, we have had a record turkey population in Pennsylvania. So I guess we did very well,” said Casalena. During the peak years, Pennsylvania’s turkey population was estimated to be well over 400,000 birds. By last year, however -- and following several years with cold, rainy springs and some harsh winters -- the population had dropped to about 270,000 birds. |
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