Due largely to below-average reproduction in certain areas, some Pennsylvania gobbler hunters may need to work a bit harder this spring to find gobblers, at least compared to last year.

Still, there will be plenty of opportunities for those willing to put in the time necessary to find and pattern local flocks.

Mary Jo Casalena, the Pennsylvania Game Commission's top wild turkey biologist, manages a wealth of information regarding the recruitment of wild turkeys for the past few years, as well as harvest statistics. She bases her predictions for the coming year on her best information at any given time.

Casalena said the estimated statewide wild turkey population last spring was 323,500 birds. That was 5.4 percent lower than the previous year, and 6.4 percent below the previous five-year average of 359,300 turkeys. She pointed out, however, that the number was still 6 percent higher than the baseline figure of 305,200 birds established in 1995.

"These recent decreases are mainly due to below-average reproduction during the last three summers, which followed the snowy winter of 2002 and below-average mast crops, acorns and such," she explained. "Recruitment in 2006 will depend on spring weather conditions. A warm, dry spring will translate into successful reproduction. A cold, wet spring will translate into another year of poor recruitment. However, current wild turkey populations in many areas of the commonwealth remain at or above the long-term average."

Because most bagged birds are relatively young, hunters see rapid swings in wild turkey populations. Jakes taken this spring will be from the hatch of 2005, and 2-year-old birds -- often considered the most vocal and easiest gobblers to call in -- will be from the 2004 breeding season. Thus, the recruitment of birds from the past two years is an important consideration for this year's hunters.

"The statewide average turkey recruitment in 2005 was 18 percent lower than in 2004 and 12 percent lower than our baseline year of 1995, as indicated by our Turkey Summer Sighting Index," reported Casalena. "It was 30 percent below the previous five-year average, which contained the highest indices on record. With below-average recruitment during the past three springs, hunting prospects in many wildlife management units will also be below average. However, Pennsylvania is a diverse state, and hunting success will vary depending on the locale."

Casalena's predictions were made prior to knowing the impact of last year's winter on wild turkey populations.

"Although winter turkey mortality typically is not a major issue in Pennsylvania, it can cause some localized population fluctuations," she noted. "The main concern with winter conditions typically is not with gobblers, but with breeding hens. A harsh winter may cause hens to enter the breeding season in poor physical condition, thus reducing their ability to initiate a nest."

Last season, spring hunters bagged approximately 38,820 bearded birds. The harvest was about 5 percent lower than the harvest in 2004, when 41,017 jakes and gobblers were taken. Casalena said the 2005 spring harvest was 12 percent below the previous 10-year average of 44,158 birds.

"The 2004 harvest was slightly below our harvest goal," she explained, "which is to maintain or exceed the 1995 level of a preliminary harvest of approximately 40,400 turkeys. The recent declines in turkey harvests are mainly due to below-average reproduction coupled with slightly longer fall turkey-hunting seasons in some wildlife management units. With the decreased fall season lengths the PGC instituted in some WMUs, coupled with a few years of above-average reproduction, the turkey population and spring harvests could again attain the record levels we saw in 2001."