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Pennsylvania Game & Fish
Pennsylvania's 2005 Turkey Forecast
Here's what's in store for Keystone State turkey hunters as we enter the 2005 spring hunting season.

Photo by Ron Sinfelt

Pennsylvania's wild turkey population has not increased lately, but there's really not much to complain about. Fabulous minus just a bit is not a bad thing. Most hunters will not even notice a difference.

Since 2000, the number of spring gobbler hunters has exceeded the number of fall turkey hunters. Turkey hunting is second in popularity only to deer hunting among Pennsylvania hunters. It has been this way since 1999 when turkey hunters surpassed the number of rabbit hunters. The number of turkey hunters actually peaked three years before then.

Pennsylvania's spring gobbler season gets underway April 23 with a special youth hunt. The regular season is April 30 through May 28. Roughly 225,000 hunters will be in the woods this month.


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Our turkey population peaked in 2001 at an estimated 410,000 birds, the result of several consecutive mild winters with abundant fall foods, good spring nesting conditions and shorter fall hunting seasons in some areas. Conditions have been considerably different since then, particularly spring nesting conditions. By 2003, the population had slipped to about 363,000 turkeys, then down again to about 342,000 last spring, a decline of about 17 percent over three years. With another less-than-perfect spring nesting season in 2004, we can guess that the population is somewhat less again this spring, but not by much.

Mary Jo Casalena, the Pennsylvania Game Commission's top wild turkey biologist, reported last fall that the decline in turkey numbers since 2001 has been the result of three consecutive years of lower recruitment caused by harsh winter weather, wet springs, as well as more liberal fall turkey seasons in 2002 and 2003.

"Our wild turkey population still is in fine shape and above our management goal," she noted, "especially after the troubling fall season many hunters experienced in 2003 when poor mast crops and foul weather impacted the ability of many hunters to locate the smaller-sized flocks."

Regardless of recent declines, experts consider Pennsylvania's wild turkey management plan to be a huge success. With one exception the PGC's long-term goals have been met.

The Pennsylvania Game Commission's wild turkey management plan established in 1999 set a goal to maintain and enhance wild turkey populations in all suitable habitats throughout Pennsylvania for hunting and viewing recreation by current and fewer generations.

To meet the objective, population trends are assessed each year through harvest data and summer sighting surveys conducted by field personnel. The reliability of this method is constantly being evaluated and other methods are being developed. Data for population modeling in the various wildlife management areas is collected by radio telemetry. Important information includes sex and age composition of harvested turkeys, mortality rates by sex, age and cause, and recruitment rates.

Another objective of harvest management is to maintain or exceed 1995 spring and fall hunter success rates. Turkey harvests, harvest densities, hunter numbers and success are evaluated each year. Seasons and bag limits are evaluated each year to provide the optimum recreation without limiting the growth of the turkey population.

Pennsylvania typically leads the country in wild turkey harvests. The combined 1995 harvest was 86,149 turkeys (36,401 spring, 49,748 fall), a record at that time. From 1996 through 2003, we failed to top that spring harvest management goal only three times, averaging 39,022 gobblers per spring. The record, set in 2001, is 49,186 spring gobblers.

This will be a key year in the state's turkey management program. Management goals include obtaining reliable estimates of the turkey population in each management unit, developing harvest goals for each management unit and reviewing or updating boundaries for each management unit. Reevaluations will be made every 10 years.


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